Electronic Trading: Conclusion

If you are a long-term investor, you can take this tutorial with a grain of salt. At least now you have some insight into how electronic systems give direct access to the market. We hope this has enlightened your outlook and helped you achieve a greater understanding of how the execution of stock orders is done. For those who are looking to become a trader, this is the tip of the iceberg and we'd advise you to do a lot more research in this area before jumping in.

Let's recap what we have learned:

•The NYSE is an auction market and uses specialists to trade securities.
•The Nasdaq is an OTC market where trading is facilitated through market makers.
•Each stock listed on the NYSE is allocated to a specialist who matches up buyers and sellers, provides liquidity and finds the fair price at the beginning of each trading day.
•A market maker provides continuous bid and offer prices within a prescribed percentage spread for shares in which they are designated to make a market.
•SuperDOT system is an electronic system used to place orders for stocks on the NYSE.
•ECNs network major brokerages and traders, so that they can trade between themselves without involving a middleman.
•SOES is an automatic order execution for individual traders with orders less than or equal to 1,000 shares.
•There are three levels on the Nasdaq that vary on the amount of information and access they provide to investors.

Electronic Trading: Level I, II and III Access

There are a variety of ways in which Nasdaq quotes security prices to the public. These levels vary on the amount of information and access they provide to investors.

Level I
This type of quote is most often published on the net as a "real-time quote." Level I consists of real-time bid/ask quotes for securities trading on the Nasdaq stock market. This type of access does not disclose who is bidding or asking for the stock, and it does not show how many shares the market maker is looking for. Real-time quotes show the current quote, but it may be from a different lot than what you are trading. Market makers love clients with this type of access because it doesn't show you the order sizes, and therefore your order may be passed around or held until market makers can profit from your order.

Level II
This type of quotation system is a step up from the Level I. Level II access provides real-time access to the quotations of individual market makers registered in every Nasdaq-listed security as well as the offering or bidding lots that they are looking for. This level of access also gives the name of the market maker looking to trade the stock. It allows traders to see what market makers are showing the most interest in a stock and to identify the patterns for each market maker. Level II access is available over the internet - but at a cost. This can range in the hundreds of dollars per month depending on the company. For clients placing a large number of trades, the firm may waive the access fee because they will make up the costs on your commissions.

Level III
This is a trading service consisting of everything in Level II plus the ability to enter quotes, execute orders and send information. This service is restricted to NASD member firms that function as registered market makers. Level III allows you to enter bid/ask quotes as the trades are being executed right in front of you. It is the fastest way to execute a trade and is typically found only on the trading floors of brokerage firms and market makers.

Stock-Picking Strategies: Conclusion

Let's run through a quick recap of the foundational concepts that we covered in our look at the most well-known stock-picking strategies and techniques:

•Most of the strategies discussed in this tutorial use the tools and techniques of fundamental analysis, whose main objective is to find the worth of a company, or its intrinsic value.
•In quantitative analysis, a company is worth the sum of its discounted cash flows. In other words, it is worth all of its future profits added together.
•Some qualitative factors affecting the value of a company are its management, business model, industry and brand name.
•Value investors, concerned with the present, look for stocks selling at a price that is lower than the estimated worth of the company, as reflected by its fundamentals. Growth investors are concerned with the future, buying companies that may be trading higher than their intrinsic worth but show the potential to grow and one day exceed their current valuations.
•The GARP strategy is a combination of both growth and value: investors concerned with 'growth at a reasonable price' look for companies that are somewhat undervalued given their growth potential.
•Income investors, seeking a steady stream of income from their stocks, look for solid companies that pay a high but sustainable dividend yield.
•CAN SLIM analyzes these factors of companies: current earnings, annual earnings, new changes, supply and demand, leadership in industry, institutional sponsorship, and market direction.
•Dogs of the Dow are the 10 of the 30 companies in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) with the highest dividend yield.
•Technical analysis, the polar opposite of fundamental analysis, is not concerned with a stock's intrinsic value, but instead looks at past market activity to determine future price movements.

Stock-Picking Strategies: Technical Analysis

Technical analysis is the polar opposite of fundamental analysis, which is the basis of every method explored so far in this tutorial. Technical analysts, or technicians, select stocks by analyzing statistics generated by past market activity, prices and volumes. Sometimes also known as chartists, technical analysts look at the past charts of prices and different indicators to make inferences about the future movement of a stock's price.

Philosophy of Technical Analysis
In his book, "Charting Made Easy", technical analysis guru John Murphy introduces readers to the study of technical analysis, explaining its basic premises and tools. Here he explains the underlying theories of technical analysis:

"Chart analysis (also called technical analysis) is the study of market action, using price charts, to forecast future price direction. The cornerstone of the technical philosophy is the belief that all factors that influence market price - fundamental information, political events, natural disasters, and psychological factors - are quickly discounted in market activity. In other words, the impact of these external factors will quickly show up in some form of price movement, either up or down."
The most important assumptions that all technical analysis techniques are based upon can be summarized as follows:

Prices already reflect, or discount, relevant information. In other words, markets are efficient.
Prices move in trends.
History repeats itself.
(For a more detailed explanation of this concept, see our Technical Analysis tutorial.)

What Technical Analysts Don't Care About
Pure technical analysts couldn't care less about the elusive intrinsic value of a company or any other factors that preoccupy fundamental analysts, such as management, business models or competition. Technicians are concerned with the trends implied by past data, charts and indicators, and they often make a lot of money trading companies they know almost nothing about.

Is Technical Analysis a Long-Term Strategy?
The answer to the question above is no. Definitely not. Technical analysts are usually very active in their trades, holding positions for short periods in order to capitalize on fluctuations in price, whether up or down. A technical analyst may go short or long on a stock, depending on what direction the data is saying the price will move. (For further reading on active trading and why technical analysis is appropriate for a short-term strategy, see Defining Active Trading.)

If a stock does not perform the way a technician thought it would, he or she wastes little time deciding whether to exit his or her position, using stop-loss orders to mitigate losses. Whereas a value investor must exercise a lot of patience and wait for the market to correct its undervaluation of a company, the technician must possess a great deal of trading agility and know how to get in and out of positions with speed.

Support and Resistance
Among the most important concepts in technical analysis are support and resistance. These are the levels at which technicians expect a stock to start increasing after a decline (support), or to begin decreasing after an increase (resistance). Trades are generally entered around these important levels because they indicate the way in which a stock will bounce. They will enter into a long position if they feel a support level has been hit, or enter into a short position if they feel a resistance level has been struck.

Here is an illustration of where technicians might set support and resistance levels:



Picking Stocks with Technical Analysis
Technicians have a very full toolbox. They literally have hundreds of indicators and chart patterns to use for picking stocks. However, it is important to note that no one indicator or chart pattern is infallible or absolute; the technician must interpret indicators and patterns, and this process is more subjective than formulaic. Let's briefly examine a couple of the most popular chart patterns (of price) that technicians analyze.


Cup and Handle
This is a bullish pattern that looks like a pot with a handle. The stock price is expected to break out at the end of the handle, so by buying here, investors are able to make a lot of money. Another reason for this pattern's popularity is how easy it is to spot. Here is an example of a great cup and handle pattern:



Head and Shoulders
This pattern resembles, well, a head with two shoulders. Technicians usually consider this a bearish pattern. Below is a great example of this particular chart pattern:



Remember, these two examples are mere glimpses into the vast world of technical analysis and its techniques. We couldn't have a complete stock picking tutorial without mentioning technical analysis, but this brief intro barely scratches the surface.
Conclusion
Technical analysis is unlike any other stock-picking strategy - it has its own set of concepts, and it relies on a completely different set of criteria than any strategy employing fundamental analysis. However, regardless of its analytical approach, mastering technical analysis requires discipline and savvy, just like any other strategy.

Stock-Picking Strategies: Dogs of the Dow

The investing strategy which focuses on Dogs of the Dow was popularized by Michael Higgins in his book, "Beating the Dow". The strategy's simplicity is one of its most attractive attributes. The Dogs of the Dow are the 10 of the 30 companies in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) with the highest dividend yield. In the Dogs of the Dow strategy, the investor shuffles around his or her portfolio, adjusting it so that it is always equally allocated in each of these 10 stocks.

Typically, such an investor would need to completely rid his or her portfolio of about three to four stocks every year and replace them with different ones. The stocks are usually replaced because their dividend yields have fallen out of the top 10, or occasionally, because they have been removed from the DJIA altogether.

Is it Really that Simple?
Yes, this strategy really is as simple as it sounds. At the end of every year, you reassess the 30 components of the DJIA, determine which ones have the highest dividend yield, and ask your broker to make your portfolio as equally weighted in each of these 10 stocks as possible. Hold onto these 10 stocks for one calendar year, until the following Jan 1, and repeat the process. This is a long-term strategy, requiring a long period to see results. There have been a few years in which the Dow has outperformed the Dogs, so it is the long-term averages that proponents of the strategy rely on.

The Premise
The premise of this investment style is that the Dow laggards, which are temporarily out-of-favor stocks, are still good companies because they are still included in the DJIA; therefore, holding on to them is a smart idea, in theory. Once these companies rebound and the market has revalued them properly (or so you hope), you can sell them and replenish your portfolio with other good companies that are temporarily out of favor. Companies in the Dow have historically been very stable companies that can weather any market decline with their solid balance sheets and strong fundamentals. Furthermore, because there is a committee perpetually tinkering with the DJIA's components, you can rest assured that the DJIA is made up of good, solid companies.

By the Numbers
As mentioned earlier, one of the big attractions of the Dogs of the Dow strategy is its simplicity; the other is its performance. From 1957 to 2003, the Dogs outperformed the Dow by about 3%, averaging a return rate of 14.3% annually whereas the Dows averaged 11%. The performance between 1973 and 1996 was even more impressive, as the Dogs returned 20.3% annually, whereas the Dows averaged 15.8%.

Variations of the Dogs
Because of this strategy's simplicity and its returns, many have tried to alter it in an attempt to refine it, making it both simpler and higher yielding. There is the Dow 5, which includes the five Dogs of the Dow that have the lowest per share price. Then there is the Dow 4, which includes the 4 highest priced stocks of the Dow 5. Finally, there is the Foolish 4, made famous by the Motley Fool, which chooses the same stocks as the Dow 4, but allocates 40% of the portfolio to the lowest priced of these four stocks and 20% to the other three stocks.

These variations of the Dogs of the Dow were all developed using backtesting, or testing strategies on old data. The likelihood of these strategies outperforming the Dogs of the Dow or the DJIA in the future is very uncertain; however, the results of the backtesting are interesting. The table below is based on data from 1973-1996.



Before you go out and start applying one of these strategies, consider this: picking the highest yielding stocks makes some intuitive sense, but picking stocks based strictly on price seems odd. Share price is a fairly relative thing; a company could split its shares but still be worth the same, simply having twice as many shares with half the share price. When it comes to the variations on the Dogs of the Dow, there are many more questions than there are answers.




Dogs Not Fool Proof
As is the case with the other strategies we've looked at, the Dogs of the Dow strategy is not fool-proof. The theory puts a lot of faith in the assumption that the time period from the mid-20th century to the turn of the 21st century will repeat itself over the long run. If this assumption is accurate, the Dogs will provide about a 3% greater return than the Dow, but this is by no means guaranteed.

Conclusion
The Dogs of the Dow is a simple and effective strategy based on the results of the last 50 years. Pick the 10 highest yielding stocks of the 30 Dow stocks, and weigh your portfolio equally among them, adjusting the portfolio annually, and you can expect about a 3% outperformance of the Dow. That is, if history repeats itself.

Stock-Picking Strategies: Income Investing

Income investing, which aims to pick companies that provide a steady stream of income, is perhaps one of the most straightforward stock-picking strategies. When investors think of steady income they commonly think of fixed-income securities such as bonds. However, stocks can also provide a steady income by paying a solid dividend. Here we look at the strategy that focuses on finding these kinds of stocks.

Who Pays Dividends?
Income investors usually end up focusing on older, more established firms, which have reached a certain size and are no longer able to sustain higher levels of growth. These companies generally no longer are in rapidly expanding industries and so instead of reinvesting retained earnings into themselves (as many high-flying growth companies do), mature firms tend to pay out retained earnings as dividends as a way to provide a return to their shareholders.

Thus, dividends are more prominent in certain industries. Utility companies, for example, have historically paid a fairly decent dividend, and this trend should continue in the future. (For more on the resurgence of dividends following the tech boom, see How Dividends Work For Investors.)

Dividend Yield
Income investing is not simply about investing in companies with the highest dividends (in dollar figures). The more important gauge is the dividend yield, calculated by dividing the annual dividend per share by share price. This measures the actual return that a dividend gives the owner of the stock. For example, a company with a share price of $100 and a dividend of $6 per share has a 6% dividend yield, or 6% return from dividends. The average dividend yield for companies in the S&P 500 is 2-3%.

But income investors demand a much higher yield than 2-3%. Most are looking for a minimum 5-6% yield, which on a $1-million investment would produce an income (before taxes) of $50,000-$60,000. The driving principle behind this strategy is probably becoming pretty clear: find good companies with sustainable high dividend yields to receive a steady and predictable stream of money over the long term.

Another factor to consider with the dividend yield is a company's past dividend policy. Income investors must determine whether a prospective company can continue with its dividends. If a company has recently increased its dividend, be sure to analyze that decision. A large increase, say from 1.5% to 6%, over a short period such as a year or two, may turn out to be over-optimistic and unsustainable into the future. The longer the company has been paying a good dividend, the more likely it will continue to do so in the future. Companies that have had steady dividends over the past five, 10, 15, or even 50 years are likely to continue the trend.

An Example
There are many good companies that pay great dividends and also grow at a respectable rate. Perhaps the best example of this is Johnson & Johnson. From 1963 to 2004, Johnson & Johnson has increased its dividend every year. In fact, if you bought the stock in 1963 the dividend yield on your initial shares would have grown approximately 12% annually. Thirty years later, your earnings from dividends alone would have rendered a 48% annual return on your initial shares!

Here is a chart of Johnson & Johnson's share price (adjusted for splits and dividend payments), which demonstrates the power of the combination of dividend yield and company appreciation:



This chart should address the concerns of those who simply dismiss income investing as an extremely defensive and conservative investment style. When an initial investment appreciates over 225 times - including dividends - in about 20 years, that may be about as "sexy" as it gets.




Dividends Are Not Everything
You should never invest solely on the basis of dividends. Keep in mind that high dividends don't automatically indicate a good company. Because they are paid out of a company's net income, higher dividends will result in a lower retained earnings. Problems arise when the income that would have been better re-invested into the company goes to high dividends instead.

The income investing strategy is about more than using a stock screener to find the companies with the highest dividend yield. Because these yields are only worth something if they are sustainable, income investors must be sure to analyze their companies carefully, buying only ones that have good fundamentals. Like all other strategies discussed in this tutorial, the income investing strategy has no set formula for finding a good company. To determine the sustainability of dividends by means of fundamental analysis, each individual investor must use his or her own interpretive skills and personal judgment - for this reason, we won't get into what defines a "good company".

Stock Picking, not Fixed Income
Something to remember is that dividends do not equal lower risk. The risk associated with any equity security still applies to those with high dividend yields, although the risk can be minimized by picking solid companies.

Taxes Taxes Taxes
One final important note: in most countries and states/provinces, dividend payments are taxed at the same rate as your wages. As such, these payments tend to be taxed higher than capital gains, which is a factor that reduces your overall return.

Stock-Picking Strategies: Value Investing

Value investing is one of the best known stock-picking methods. In the 1930s, Benjamin Graham and David Dodd, finance professors at Columbia University, laid out what many consider to be the framework for value investing. The concept is actually very simple: find companies trading below their inherent worth.

The value investor looks for stocks with strong fundamentals - including earnings, dividends, book value, and cash flow - that are selling at a bargain price, given their quality. The value investor seeks companies that seem to be incorrectly valued (undervalued) by the market and therefore have the potential to increase in share price when the market corrects its error in valuation.

Value, Not Junk!
Before we get too far into the discussion of value investing, let's get one thing straight. Value investing doesn't mean just buying any stock that declines and therefore seems "cheap" in price. Value investors have to do their homework and be confident that they are picking a company that is cheap given its high quality.

It's important to distinguish the difference between a value company and a company that simply has a declining price. Say for the past year Company A has been trading at about $25 per share but suddenly drops to $10 per share. This does not automatically mean that the company is selling at a bargain. All we know is that the company is less expensive now than it was last year. The drop in price could be a result of the market responding to a fundamental problem in the company. To be a real bargain, this company must have fundamentals healthy enough to imply it is worth more than $10 - value investing always compares current share price to intrinsic value not to historic share prices.

Value Investing at Work
One of the greatest investors of all time, Warren Buffett, has proven that value investing can work: his value strategy took the stock of Berkshire Hathaway, his holding company, from $12 a share in 1967 to $70,900 in 2002. The company beat the S&P 500's performance by about 13.02% on average annually! Although Buffett does not strictly categorize himself as a value investor, many of his most successful investments were made on the basis of value investing principles. (See Warren Buffett: How He Does It.)

Buying a Business, not a Stock
We should emphasize that the value investing mentality sees a stock as the vehicle by which a person becomes an owner of a company - to a value investor profits are made by investing in quality companies, not by trading. Because their method is about determining the worth of the underlying asset, value investors pay no mind to the external factors affecting a company, such as market volatility or day-to-day price fluctuations. These factors are not inherent to the company, and therefore are not seen to have any effect on the value of the business in the long run.

Contradictions
While the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) claims that prices are always reflecting all relevant information, and therefore are already showing the intrinsic worth of companies, value investing relies on a premise that opposes that theory. Value investors bank on the EMH being true only in some academic wonderland. They look for times of inefficiency, when the market assigns an incorrect price to a stock.

Value investors also disagree with the principle that high beta (also known as volatility, or standard deviation) necessarily translates into a risky investment. A company with an intrinsic value of $20 per share but is trading at $15 would be, as we know, an attractive investment to value investors. If the share price dropped to $10 per share, the company would experience an increase in beta, which conventionally represents an increase in risk. If, however, the value investor still maintained that the intrinsic value was $20 per share, s/he would see this declining price as an even better bargain. And the better the bargain, the lesser the risk. A high beta does not scare off value investors. As long as they are confident in their intrinsic valuation, an increase in downside volatility may be a good thing.

Screening for Value Stocks
Now that we have a solid understanding of what value investing is and what it is not, let's get into some of the qualities of value stocks.

Qualitative aspects of value stocks:

Where are value stocks found? - Everywhere. Value stocks can be found trading on the NYSE, Nasdaq, AMEX, over the counter, on the FTSE, Nikkei and so on.
a) In what industries are value stocks located? - Value stocks can be located in any industry, including energy, finance and even technology (contrary to popular belief).
b) In what industries are value stocks most often located? - Although value stocks can be located anywhere, they are often located in industries that have recently fallen on hard times, or are currently facing market overreaction to a piece of news affecting the industry in the short term. For example, the auto industry's cyclical nature allows for periods of undervaluation of companies such as Ford or GM.
Can value companies be those that have just reached new lows? - Definitely, although we must re-emphasize that the "cheapness" of a company is relative to intrinsic value. A company that has just hit a new 12-month low or is at half of a 12-month high may warrant further investigation.
Here is a breakdown of some of the numbers value investors use as rough guides for picking stocks. Keep in mind that these are guidelines, not hard-and-fast rules:

Share price should be no more than two-thirds of intrinsic worth.
Look at companies with P/E ratios at the lowest 10% of all equity securities.
PEG should be less than one.
Stock price should be no more than tangible book value.
There should be no more debt than equity (i.e. D/E ratio < 1).
Current assets should be two times current liabilities.
Dividend yield should be at least two-thirds of the long-term AAA bond yield.
Earnings growth should be at least 7% per annum compounded over the last 10 years.



The P/E and PEG Ratios
Contrary to popular belief, value investing is not simply about investing in low P/E stocks. It's just that stocks which are undervalued will often reflect this undervaluation through a low P/E ratio, which should simply provide a way to compare companies within the same industry. For example, if the average P/E of the technology consulting industry is 20, a company trading in that industry at 15 times earnings should sound some bells in the heads of value investors.

Another popular metric for valuing a company's intrinsic value is the PEG ratio, calculated as a stock's P/E ratio divided by its projected year-over-year earnings growth rate. In other words, the ratio measures how cheap the stock is while taking into account its earnings growth. If the company's PEG ratio is less than one, it is considered to be undervalued.

Narrowing It Down Even Further
One well-known and accepted method of picking value stocks is the net-net method. This method states that if a company is trading at two-thirds of its current assets, no other gauge of worth is necessary. The reasoning behind this is simple: if a company is trading at this level, the buyer is essentially getting all the permanent assets of the company (including property, equipment, etc) and the company's intangible assets (mainly goodwill, in most cases) for free! Unfortunately, companies trading this low are few and far between.

The Margin of Safety
A discussion of value investing would not be complete without mentioning the use of a margin of safety, a technique which is simple yet very effective. Consider a real-life example of a margin of safety. Say you're planning a pyrotechnics show, which will include flames and explosions. You have concluded with a high degree of certainty that it's perfectly safe to stand 100 feet from the center of the explosions. But to be absolutely sure no one gets hurt, you implement a margin of safety by setting up barriers 125 feet from the explosions.

This use of a margin of safety works similarly in value investing. It's simply the practice of leaving room for error in your calculations of intrinsic value. A value investor may be fairly confident that a company has an intrinsic value of $30 per share. But in case his or her calculations are a little too optimistic, he or she creates a margin of safety/error by using the $26 per share in their scenario analysis. The investor may find that at $15 the company is still an attractive investment, or he or she may find that at $24, the company is not attractive enough. If the stock's intrinsic value is lower than the investor estimated, the margin of safety would help prevent this investor from paying too much for the stock.

Conclusion
Value investing is not as sexy as some other styles of investing; it relies on a strict screening process. But just remember, there's nothing boring about outperforming the S&P by 13% over a 40-year span!

Stock-Picking Strategies: Qualitative Analysis

Fundamental analysis has a very wide scope. Valuing a company involves not only crunching numbers and predicting cash flows but also looking at the general, more subjective qualities of a company. Here we will look at how the analysis of qualitative factors is used for picking a stock.

Management
The backbone of any successful company is strong management. The people at the top ultimately make the strategic decisions and therefore serve as a crucial factor determining the fate of the company. To assess the strength of management, investors can simply ask the standard five Ws: who, where, what, when and why?

Who?
Do some research, and find out who is running the company. Among other things, you should know who its CEO, CFO, COO and CIO are. Then you can move onto the next question.

Where?
You need to find out where these people come from, specifically, their educational and employment backgrounds. Ask yourself if these backgrounds make the people suitable for directing the company in its industry. A management team consisting of people who come from completely unrelated industries should raise questions. If the CEO of a newly-formed mining company previously worked in the industry, ask yourself whether he or she has the necessary qualities to lead a mining company to success.

What and When?
What is the management philosophy? In other words, in what style do these people intend to manage the company? Some managers are more personable, promoting an open, transparent and flexible way of running the business. Other management philosophies are more rigid and less adaptable, valuing policy and established logic above all in the decision-making process. You can discern the style of management by looking at its past actions or by reading the annual report's management, discussion & analysis (MD&A) section. Ask yourself if you agree with this philosophy, and if it works for the company, given its size and the nature of its business.

Once you know the style of the managers, find out when this team took over the company. Jack Welch, for example, was CEO of General Electric for over 20 years. His long tenure is a good indication that he was a successful and profitable manager; otherwise, the shareholders and the board of directors wouldn't have kept him around. If a company is doing poorly, one of the first actions taken is management restructuring, which is a nice way of saying "a change in management due to poor results". If you see a company continually changing managers, it may be a sign to invest elsewhere.

At the same time, although restructuring is often brought on by poor management, it doesn't automatically mean the company is doomed. For example, Chrysler Corp was on the brink of bankruptcy when Lee Iacocca, the new CEO, came in and installed a new management team that renewed Chrysler's status as a major player in the auto industry. So, management restructuring may be a positive sign, showing that a struggling company is making efforts to improve its outlook and is about to see a change for the better.

Why?
A final factor to investigate is why these people have become managers. Look at the manager's employment history, and try to see if these reasons are clear. Does this person have the qualities you believe are needed to make someone a good manager for this company? Has s/he been hired because of past successes and achievements, or has s/he acquired the position through questionable means, such as self-appointment after inheriting the company? (For further reading, see: Get Tough on Management Puff and Evaluating a Company's Management.)

Know What a Company Does and How it Makes Money
A second important factor to consider when analyzing a company's qualitative factors is its product(s) or service(s). How does this company make money? In fancy MBA parlance, the question would be "What is the company's business model?"

Knowing how a company's activities will be profitable is fundamental to determining the worth of an investment. Often, people will boast about how profitable they think their new stock will be, but when you ask them what the company does, it seems their vision for the future is a little blurry: "Well, they have this high-tech thingamabob that does something with fiber-optic cables… ." If you aren't sure how your company will make money, you can't really be sure that its stock will bring you a return.

One of the biggest lessons taught by the dotcom bust of the late '90s is that not understanding a business model can have dire consequences. Many people had no idea how the dotcom companies were making money, or why they were trading so high. In fact, these companies weren't making any money; it's just that their growth potential was thought to be enormous. This led to overzealous buying based on a herd mentality, which in turn led to a market crash. But not everyone lost money when the bubble burst: Warren Buffett didn't invest in high-tech primarily because he didn't understand it. Although he was ostracized for this during the bubble, it saved him billions of dollars in the ensuing dotcom fallout. You need a solid understanding of how a company actually generates revenue in order to evaluate whether management is making the right decisions. (For more on this, see Getting to Know Business Models.)

Industry/Competition
Aside from having a general understanding of what a company does, you should analyze the characteristics of its industry, such as its growth potential. A mediocre company in a great industry can provide a solid return, while a mediocre company in a poor industry will likely take a bite out of your portfolio. Of course, discerning a company's stage of growth will involve approximation, but common sense can go a long way: it's not hard to see that the growth prospects of a high-tech industry are greater than those of the railway industry. It's just a matter of asking yourself if the demand for the industry is growing.

Market share is another important factor. Look at how Microsoft thoroughly dominates the market for operating systems. Anyone trying to enter this market faces huge obstacles because Microsoft can take advantage of economies of scale. This does not mean that a company in a near monopoly situation is guaranteed to remain on top, but investing in a company that tries to take on the "500-pound gorilla" is a risky venture.

Barriers against entry into a market can also give a company a significant qualitative advantage. Compare, for instance, the restaurant industry to the automobile or pharmaceuticals industries. Anybody can open up a restaurant because the skill level and capital required are very low. The automobile and pharmaceuticals industries, on the other hand, have massive barriers to entry: large capital expenditures, exclusive distribution channels, government regulation, patents and so on. The harder it is for competition to enter an industry, the greater the advantage for existing firms.

Brand Name
A valuable brand reflects years of product development and marketing. Take for example the most popular brand name in the world: Coca-Cola. Many estimate that the intangible value of Coke's brand name is in the billions of dollars! Massive corporations such as Procter & Gamble rely on hundreds of popular brand names like Tide, Pampers and Head & Shoulders. Having a portfolio of brands diversifies risk because the good performance of one brand can compensate for the underperformers.

Keep in mind that some stock-pickers steer clear of any company that is branded around one individual. They do so because, if a company is tied too closely to one person, any bad news regarding that person may hinder the company's share performance even if the news has nothing to do with company operations. A perfect example of this is the troubles faced by Martha Stewart Omnimedia as a result of Stewart's legal problems in 2004.

Don't Overcomplicate
You don't need a PhD in finance to recognize a good company. In his book "One Up on Wall Street", Peter Lynch discusses a time when his wife drew his attention to a great product with phenomenal marketing. Hanes was test marketing a product called L'eggs: women's pantyhose packaged in colorful plastic egg shells. Instead of selling these in department or specialty stores, Hanes put the product next to the candy bars, soda and gum at the checkouts of supermarkets - a brilliant idea since research showed that women frequented the supermarket about 12 times more often than the traditional outlets for pantyhose. The product was a huge success and became the second highest-selling consumer product of the 1970s.

Most women at the time would have easily seen the popularity of this product, and Lynch's wife was one of them. Thanks to her advice, he researched the company a little deeper and turned his investment in Hanes into a solid earner for Fidelity, while most of the male managers on Wall Street missed out. The point is that it's not only Wall Street analysts who are privy to information about companies; average everyday people can see such wonders too. If you see a local company expanding and doing well, dig a little deeper, ask around. Who knows, it may be the next Hanes.

Conclusion
Assessing a company from a qualitative standpoint and determining whether you should invest in it are as important as looking at sales and earnings. This strategy may be one of the simplest, but it is also one of the most effective ways to evaluate a potential investment.

Stock-Picking Strategies: Fundamental Analysis

Ever hear someone say that a company has "strong fundamentals"? The phrase is so overused that it's become somewhat of a cliché. Any analyst can refer to a company's fundamentals without actually saying anything meaningful. So here we define exactly what fundamentals are, how and why they are analyzed, and why fundamental analysis is often a great starting point to picking good companies.

The Theory
Doing basic fundamental valuation is quite straightforward; all it takes is a little time and energy. The goal of analyzing a company's fundamentals is to find a stock's intrinsic value, a fancy term for what you believe a stock is really worth - as opposed to the value at which it is being traded in the marketplace. If the intrinsic value is more than the current share price, your analysis is showing that the stock is worth more than its price and that it makes sense to buy the stock.

Although there are many different methods of finding the intrinsic value, the premise behind all the strategies is the same: a company is worth the sum of its discounted cash flows. In plain English, this means that a company is worth all of its future profits added together. And these future profits must be discounted to account for the time value of money, that is, the force by which the $1 you receive in a year's time is worth less than $1 you receive today. (For further reading, see Understanding the Time Value of Money).

The idea behind intrinsic value equaling future profits makes sense if you think about how a business provides value for its owner(s). If you have a small business, its worth is the money you can take from the company year after year (not the growth of the stock). And you can take something out of the company only if you have something left over after you pay for supplies and salaries, reinvest in new equipment, and so on. A business is all about profits, plain old revenue minus expenses - the basis of intrinsic value.

Greater Fool Theory
One of the assumptions of the discounted cash flow theory is that people are rational, that nobody would buy a business for more than its future discounted cash flows. Since a stock represents ownership in a company, this assumption applies to the stock market. But why, then, do stocks exhibit such volatile movements? It doesn't make sense for a stock's price to fluctuate so much when the intrinsic value isn't changing by the minute.

The fact is that many people do not view stocks as a representation of discounted cash flows, but as trading vehicles. Who cares what the cash flows are if you can sell the stock to somebody else for more than what you paid for it? Cynics of this approach have labeled it the greater fool theory, since the profit on a trade is not determined by a company's value, but about speculating whether you can sell to some other investor (the fool). On the other hand, a trader would say that investors relying solely on fundamentals are leaving themselves at the mercy of the market instead of observing its trends and tendencies.

This debate demonstrates the general difference between a technical and fundamental investor. A follower of technical analysis is guided not by value, but by the trends in the market often represented in charts. So, which is better: fundamental or technical? The answer is neither. As we mentioned in the introduction, every strategy has its own merits. In general, fundamental is thought of as a long-term strategy, while technical is used more for short-term strategies. (We'll talk more about technical analysis and how it works in a later section.)

Putting Theory into Practice
The idea of discounting cash flows seems okay in theory, but implementing it in real life is difficult. One of the most obvious challenges is determining how far into the future we should forecast cash flows. It's hard enough to predict next year's profits, so how can we predict the course of the next 10 years? What if a company goes out of business? What if a company survives for hundreds of years? All of these uncertainties and possibilities explain why there are many different models devised for discounting cash flows, but none completely escapes the complications posed by the uncertainty of the future.

Let's look at a sample of a model used to value a company. Because this is a generalized example, don't worry if some details aren't clear. The purpose is to demonstrate the bridging between theory and application. Take a look at how valuation based on fundamentals would look:



The problem with projecting far into the future is that we have to account for the different rates at which a company will grow as it enters different phases. To get around this problem, this model has two parts: (1) determining the sum of the discounted future cash flows from each of the next five years (years one to five), and (2) determining 'residual value', which is the sum of the future cash flows from the years starting six years from now.

In this particular example, the company is assumed to grow at 15% a year for the first five years and then 5% every year after that (year six and beyond). First, we add together all the first five yearly cash flows - each of which are discounted to year zero, the present - in order to determine the present value (PV). So once the present value of the company for the first five years is calculated, we must, in the second stage of the model, determine the value of the cash flows coming from the sixth year and all the following years, when the company's growth rate is assumed to be 5%. The cash flows from all these years are discounted back to year five and added together, then discounted to year zero, and finally combined with the PV of the cash flows from years one to five (which we calculated in the first part of the model). And voilà! We have an estimate (given our assumptions) of the intrinsic value of the company. An estimate that is higher than the current market capitalization indicates that it may be a good buy. Below, we have gone through each component of the model with specific notes:

Prior-year cash flow - The theoretical amount, or total profits, that the shareholders could take from the company the previous year.
Growth rate - The rate at which owner's earnings are expected to grow for the next five years.
Cash flow - The theoretical amount that shareholders would get if all the company's earnings, or profits, were distributed to them.
Discount factor - The number that brings the future cash flows back to year zero. In other words, the factor used to determine the cash flows' present value (PV).
Discount per year - The cash flow multiplied by the discount factor.
Cash flow in year five - The amount the company could distribute to shareholders in year five.
Growth rate - The growth rate from year six into perpetuity.
Cash flow in year six - The amount available in year six to distribute to shareholders.
Capitalization Rate - The discount rate (the denominator) in the formula for a constantly growing perpetuity.
Value at the end of year five - The value of the company in five years.
Discount factor at the end of year five - The discount factor that converts the value of the firm in year five into the present value.
PV of residual value - The present value of the firm in year five.
So far, we've been very general on what a cash flow comprises, and unfortunately, there is no easy way to measure it. The only natural cash flow from a public company to its shareholders is a dividend, and the dividend discount model (DDM) values a company based on its future dividends (see Digging Into The DDM.). However, a company doesn't pay out all of its profits in dividends, and many profitable companies don't pay dividends at all.

What happens in these situations? Other valuation options include analyzing net income, free cash flow, EBITDA and a series of other financial measures. There are advantages and disadvantages to using any of these metrics to get a glimpse into a company's intrinsic value. The point is that what represents cash flow depends on the situation. Regardless of what model is used, the theory behind all of them is the same.

Stock-Picking Strategies: Introduction

When it comes to personal finance and the accumulation of wealth, few subjects are more talked about than stocks. It's easy to understand why: playing the stock market is thrilling. But on this financial roller-coaster ride, we all want to experience the ups without the downs.

In this tutorial, we examine some of the most popular strategies for finding good stocks (or at least avoiding bad ones). In other words, we'll explore the art of stock-picking - selecting stocks based on a certain set of criteria, with the aim of achieving a rate of return that is greater than the market's overall average.

Before exploring the vast world of stock-picking methodologies, we should address a few misconceptions. Many investors new to the stock-picking scene believe that there is some infallible strategy that, once followed, will guarantee success. There is no foolproof system for picking stocks! If you are reading this tutorial in search of a magic key to unlock instant wealth, we're sorry, but we know of no such key.

This doesn't mean you can't expand your wealth through the stock market. It's just better to think of stock-picking as an art rather than a science. There are a few reasons for this:

So many factors affect a company's health that it is nearly impossible to construct a formula that will predict success. It is one thing to assemble data that you can work with, but quite another to determine which numbers are relevant.

A lot of information is intangible and cannot be measured. The quantifiable aspects of a company, such as profits, are easy enough to find. But how do you measure the qualitative factors, such as the company's staff, its competitive advantages, its reputation and so on? This combination of tangible and intangible aspects makes picking stocks a highly subjective, even intuitive process.

Because of the human (often irrational) element inherent in the forces that move the stock market, stocks do not always do what you anticipate they'll do. Emotions can change quickly and unpredictably. And unfortunately, when confidence turns into fear, the stock market can be a dangerous place.

The bottom line is that there is no one way to pick stocks. Better to think of every stock strategy as nothing more than an application of a theory - a "best guess" of how to invest. And sometimes two seemingly opposed theories can be successful at the same time. Perhaps just as important as considering theory, is determining how well an investment strategy fits your personal outlook, time frame, risk tolerance and the amount of time you want to devote to investing and picking stocks.

At this point, you may be asking yourself why stock-picking is so important. Why worry so much about it? Why spend hours doing it? The answer is simple: wealth. If you become a good stock-picker, you can increase your personal wealth exponentially. Take Microsoft, for example. Had you invested in Bill Gates' brainchild at its IPO back in 1986 and simply held that investment, your return would have been somewhere in the neighborhood of 35,000% by spring of 2004. In other words, over an 18-year period, a $10,000 investment would have turned itself into a cool $3.5 million! (In fact, had you had this foresight in the bull market of the late '90s, your return could have been even greater.) With returns like this, it's no wonder that investors continue to hunt for "the next Microsoft".

Without further ado, let's start by delving into one of the most basic and crucial aspects of stock-picking: fundamental analysis, whose theory underlies all of the strategies we explore in this tutorial (with the exception of the last section on technical analysis). Although there are many differences between each strategy, they all come down to finding the worth of a company. Keep this in mind as we move forward.

The Ins And Outs Of Selling Options

I wanted to learn more about options and I figure you might too, so I did a search and came up with this really good article from Investopedia.

In the world of buying and selling stock options, choices are made in regards to which strategy is best when considering a trade. If an investor is bullish, she can buy a call or sell a put, whereas if she is bearish, she can buy a put or sell a call. There are many reasons to choose each of the various strategies, but it is often said that "options are made to be sold." This article will explain why options tend to favor the options seller, how to get a sense of the probability of success in selling an option and what risks accompany selling options.

Time Is on My Side

The phrase "time is on my side" is not just popular because of The Rolling Stones, but also because selling options is a positive theta trade. Positive theta means that the time value in stocks will actually melt in your favor. You may know that an option is made up of intrinsic and extrinsic value. The intrinsic value relies on the stock's movement and acts almost like home equity. If the option is deeper in the money (ITM), then it has more intrinsic value. If the stock moves out of the money (OTM), then the extrinsic value will grow. Extrinsic value is also commonly known as time value.

During an option transaction, the buyer expects the stock to move in one direction and hopes to profit from it. However, this person pays both intrinsic and extrinsic value and must make up the extrinsic value to profit. Because theta is negative, the option buyer can lose money if the stock stays still or, perhaps even more frustratingly, if the stock moves slowly in the correct direction but the move is offset by time decay. Time decay works so well in the favor of the option seller because not only will it decay a little each day but it also works weekends and holidays. It's a slow-moving money maker for patient investors.

Volatility Risks and Rewards

Obviously having the stock price stay in the same area or having it move in your favor will be an important part of your success as an option seller, but paying attention to implied volatility changes is also vital to your success. Implied volatility, also known as vega, moves up and down depending on the supply and demand for option contracts. An influx of option buying will inflate the contract premium to entice option sellers to take the opposite side of each trade. Vega is part of the extrinsic value and can inflate or deflate the premium quickly.

An option seller may be short on a contract and then experience a rise in demand for contracts, which, in turn, inflates the price of the premium and may cause a loss, even if the stock hasn't moved. In most cases, on a single stock, the inflation will occur in anticipation of an earnings announcement. Monitoring implied volatility provides an option seller with an edge by selling when it's high because it will likely revert to the mean.

At the same time, time decay will work in favor of the seller too. It's important to remember that the closer the strike price is to the stock price, the more sensitive the option will be to changes in implied volatility. Therefore, the further out of the money a contract is or the deeper in the money, the less sensitive it will be to implied volatility changes.

Probability of Success

Option buyers use a contract's delta to determine how much the option contract will increase in value if the underlying stock moves in favor of the contract. However, option sellers use delta to determine the probability of success. You may remember that a delta of 1.0 means that an option will likely move dollar-per-dollar with the underlying stock, whereas a delta of .50 means the option will move 50 cents on the dollar with the underlying stock. An option seller would say that a delta of 1.0 means you have a 100% probability of success that the option will be at least 1 cent in the money by expiration and a .50 delta has a 50% chance that the option will be 1 cent in the money by expiration. The further out of the money an option is, the higher the probability of success is when selling the option without the threat of being assigned if the contract is exercised.

At some point, option sellers have to determine how important a probability of success is compared to how much premium they are going to get from selling the option. Figure 2 shows the bid and ask prices for some option contracts. Notice the lower the delta that accompanies the strike prices, the lower the premium payouts. This means that an edge of some kind needs to be determined. Various calculators are used other than delta, but this particular calculator is based on implied volatility and may give investors a much-needed edge. However, using fundamental evaluation or technical analysis can also help option sellers.

Worst-Case Scenarios

Many investors refuse to sell options because they fear worst-case scenarios. The likelihood of these types of events taking place may be very small, but it is still important to know they exist. First off, selling a call option has the theoretical risk of the stock climbing to the moon. While this may be unlikely, there isn't an upside protection to stop the loss if the stock rallies higher. Therefore, call sellers need to determine a point at which they will choose to buy back an option contract if the stock rallies, or they may implement any number of multi-leg option spread strategies designed to hedge against loss.

Selling puts, however, is basically the equivalent of a covered call. When selling a put, remember the risk comes with the stock falling, but a stock can only hit zero and you get to keep the premium as a consolation prize. It is the same in owning a covered call - the stock could drop to zero and you lose all the money in the stock with only the call premium remaining. Similar to the selling of calls, selling puts can be protected by determining a price in which you may choose to buy back the put if the stock falls or hedge the position with a multi-leg option spread.

Selling options may not have the kind of excitement as buying options, nor will it likely be a "home run" strategy. In fact, it's more akin to hitting single after single. Just remember that enough singles will still get you around the bases and the score counts the same.

by Ryan Campbell,

Ryan Campbell, CMT has worked in the financial industry for approximately a decade. He has worked as a full-service broker, a banker and is currently a content producer for Investools.com. He writes a daily market commentary and develops courses on trading equities, options, futures and currencies. He has contributed as a columnist to other financial publications. Ryan is also an active member of the Market Technicians Association and was the recipient of its prestigious Chartered Market Technician designation.

What's the difference between a stop and a limit order?

Different types of orders allow you to be more specific about how you'd like your broker to fulfill your trades. When you place a stop or limit order, you are telling your broker that you don't want the market price (the current price at which a stock is trading), but that you want the stock price to move in a certain direction before your order is executed.

With a stop order, your trade will be executed only when the security you want to buy or sell reaches a particular price (the stop price). Once the stock has reached this price, a stop order essentially becomes a market order and is filled.

For instance, if you own stock ABC, which currently trades at $20, and you place a stop order to sell it at $15, your order will only be filled once stock ABC drops below $15. Also known as a "stop-loss order", this allows you to limit your losses. However, this type of order can also be used to guarantee profits.

For example, assume that you bought stock XYZ at $10 per share and now the stock is trading at $20 per share. Placing a stop order at $15 will guarantee profits of approximately $5 per share, depending on how quickly the market order can be filled.

Stop orders are particularly advantageous to investors who are unable to monitor their stocks for a period of time, and brokerages may even set these stop orders for no charge.

One disadvantage of the stop order is that the order is not guaranteed to be filled at the preferred price the investor states. Once the stop order has been triggered, it turns into a market order, which is filled at the best possible price. This price may be lower than the price specified by the stop order.

Moreover, investors must be conscientious about where they set a stop order. It may be unfavorable if it is activated by a short-term fluctuation in the stock's price. For example, if stock ABC is relatively volatile and fluctuates by 15% on a weekly basis, a stop loss set at 10% below the current price may result in the order being triggered at an inopportune or premature time.

A limit order is an order that sets the maximum or minimum at which you are willing to buy or sell a particular stock. For instance, if you want to buy stock ABC, which is trading at $12, you can set a limit order for $10. This guarantees that you will pay no more than $10 to buy this stock. Once the stock reaches $10 or less, you will automatically buy a predetermined amount of shares.

On the other hand, if you own stock ABC and it is trading at $12, you could place a limit order to sell it at $15. This guarantees that the stock will be sold at $15 or more.

The primary advantage of a limit order is that it guarantees that the trade will be made at a particular price; however, your brokerage will probably charge a higher a commission for the limit order, and it's possible that your order will not be executed at all if the limit price is not reached.

More about Growth Investing

Here is some more information about Growth Companies:

What Does Growth Company Mean?

Any firm whose business generates significant positive cash flows or earnings, which increase at significantly faster rates than the overall economy. A growth company tends to have very profitable reinvestment opportunities for its own retained earnings. Thus, it typically pays little to no dividends to stockholders, opting instead to plow most or all of its profits back into its expanding business.

Growth Company

Growth companies are most often seen in the technology industries. The quintessential example of a growth company is Google, which has grown revenues, cash flows and earnings by leaps and bounds since its initial public offering. Growth companies such as Google are expected to increase profits markedly in the future, and thus the market bids up their share prices to high valuations. This contrasts with mature companies, such as diversified utility companies, which see very stable earnings with little to no growth.

Growth Investing

I thought some of my readers might also like to know a little more about Growth Investing, so here it is:

What Does Growth Investing Mean?

A strategy whereby an investor seeks out stocks with what they deem good growth potential. In most cases a growth stock is defined as a company whose earnings are expected to grow at an above-average rate compared to its industry or the overall market.

Growth Investing

Growth investors often call growth investing a capital growth strategy, since investors seek to maximize their capital gains.Although it is often said that growth investing and value investing are diametrically opposed, a better way to view these two strategies is to consider a quote by Warren Buffett: "growth and value investing are joined at the hip". Another very famous investor, Peter Lynch, pioneered a hybrid of growth and value investing with what is now commonly referred to as a "growth at a reasonable price (GARP)" strategy.

What Does Growth At A Reasonable Price - GARP Mean?

An equity investment strategy that seeks to combine tenets of both growth investing and value investing to find individual stocks. GARP investors look for companies that are showing consistent earnings growth above broad market levels (a tenet of growth investing ) while excluding companies that have very high valuations (value investing). The overarching goal is to avoid the extremes of either growth or value investing; this typically leads GARP investors to growth-oriented stocks with relatively low price/earnings (P/E) multiples in normal market conditions.

Growth At A Reasonable Price - GARP

GARP investing was popularized by legendary Fidelity manager Peter Lynch. While the style may not have rigid boundaries for including or excluding stocks, a fundamental metric that serves as a solid benchmark is the price/earnings growth (PEG) ratio. The PEG shows the ratio between a company's P/E ratio (valuation) and its expected earnings growth rate over the next several years. A GARP investor would seek out stocks that have a PEG of 1 or less, which shows that P/E ratios are in line with expected earnings growth. This helps to uncover stocks that are trading at reasonable prices.

In a bear market or other downturn in stocks, one could expect the returns of GARP investors to be higher than those of pure growth investors, but subpar to strict value investors who generally purchase shares at P/Es under broad market multiples.

Rule # 1 Investing

I am reading a new book called "Rule #1" by: Phil Town.

The Rule is to Not loose money!

I love this book so far. It has helped teach me how to break down a companies financials to make a better informed decision when it comes to a stock purchase. I recommend this book to anyone that wants to make over 15% returns from the stock market. It follows the Value Investing principals.

I have researched many companies recently and have come up with a top 10 stocks to invest in. I am not going to share that information until I make the purchase which I will post on here, because I only invest in companies I can understand and that fit in my moral values, which may or may not be yours.

The system teaches you to figure out 6 main numbers for a company.

They are:

Return on Investment Capital (ROIC)
Sales Growth Rate
Earnings per share growth rate
Equity growth rate
Cash flow growth rate
Value per share (actual value per share based on what the company is worth)

When you figure them you figure the 10 year, 5 year and 1 year numbers. They all need to be over 10% with an increasing value over time.

Also the Value per share needs to be 50% of the actual share price to have a built in margin of safety.

Once you have narrowed down the list of stocks by doing this you can then look at P/E ratios, Dividends, Insider Trading, Earnings per share, Book price, etc.... To figure out if the company is one you want to own.

One thing I have learned is to look at myself as owning the company, not just a shareholder. Only by companies that you would own for 100 years and that you agree with their work ethic, their morals, etc... Also only buy businesses that you have some knowledge of, or feel close to.

Here is a quick and easy link to the book at Amazon. I have found that it is very hard to find a place that can beat their prices. So here it is, hope this helps and gets you into this form of investing, I think you will enjoy it, especially when the money starts rolling in from your investments.